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May
12, 2003
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May
13, 2003
The Hippo and the Mongoose
A Question in
Military Theory
By WILLIAM S. LIND
In the last column, I took a look
at some of the military theoretical
work of Col. John Boyd,
and made the point that there was a lot more to his work than
the OODA Loop. But the sorts of Fourth Generation wars we are
now fighting in Afghanistan and probably facing in Iraq raise
an interesting question about the OODA Loop itself.
To review briefly, the
OODA Loop concept explains how Third Generation maneuver warfare
works and why it is fought more in time than in space. John Boyd
said that all conflict is a matter of time-competitive cycles
of Observation, Orientation, Decision and Action. Whoever can
go through the cycle consistently faster than his opponent gains
a decisive advantage.
But Fourth Generation
war against non-state opponents such as al Qaeda and the Taliban
raises an interesting question, one that some of the Marines
I know have been asking me: could there be a counter or opposite
to the OODA Loop, where an opponent gets inside us by moving
not faster, but so slowly that we cannot perceive he is moving
at all?
I don't know the answer.
I wish I could ask John Boyd but that will have to wait until
I see him at the great fighter pilot bar in the sky. I am sure
he would find the question of interest, because John never made
the mistake of turning his theories into closed systems. On the
contrary, he was excited by the possibility of something new
that did not fit.
If we look at al Qaeda
and the Taliban as typical Fourth Generation, non-state opponents,
they seem to have very slow OODA Loops. Indeed, some American
spokesmen are now claiming we have defeated al Quaeda, because
it did not do anything during our invasion of Iraq. We long ago
claimed that we had beaten the Taliban (in fact, it now controls
two provinces in Afghanistan). Because we do not see enemies
like them moving, we assume they are not.
Here is where I think
John Boyd would get very interested. He stressed the power of
ambiguity, uncertainty and seeming weakness. They are good ways
to disrupt the other side's orientation. But how exactly might
they fit into, or on the other hand counter, our own OODA Loop?
Again, I do not know
the answer. But one clue does strike me. If we look at how the
American armed forces operate, they have a very fast first OODA
Loop, assuming they have had the time a Second Generation military
requires to plan. But that OODA Loop has one, predictable product:
putting firepower on targets. Then, we flatline.
Here is where we see
a critical weakness of any Second Generation military. It has
just one act. Once it has done its one act, blowing away anything
it can see that is opposed to it, it is out of tricks. It is
like John Boyd's description of the Navy's F-14 fighter: it does
one initial maneuver very well, then it is out of energy (Pierre
Sprey, Boyd's long-time associate and friend, calls the F-14
America's Me-110)
Once we flatline, a Fourth
Generation opponent's OODA Loop can be very slow, yet still cut
inside ours. Here is where the ability of Fourth Generation opponents
to operate cloaked with ambiguity and deception becomes critical.
If our whole way of war is putting steel on targets, and they
focus on being untargetable, who comes out ahead? It would seem
they have the initiative.
Looked at this way, Boyd's
OODA Loop concept and his understanding of the importance of
disrupting the enemy's orientation may allow Fourth Generation
forces to do what they do, yet still fall within Boyd's theoretical
framework. But I am not certain. I can see Boyd's expression
and hear his cackling, crow-like voice saying, "That's a
very interesting question." At present, that is probably
where we have to leave it.
One final note: do not
make the mistake of confusing high levels of activity with a
rapid OODA Loop. American armed forces are frantically busy,
in peacetime and in war. They run around a lot, and they run
around fast. So does a headless chicken, but someone has already
gotten inside its OODA Loop big-time.
William S. Lind is Director of the Center for
Cultural Conservatism.
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